We’ve got NHL shot props for tonight, breaking down a profitable angle on Toronto’s Ondrej Kase as the Leafs visit Columbus.
Kase was hit with a demotion in recent week, and that doesn’t appear to be reflected in his shot prop for tonight. Let’s dive into some of the numbers.
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NHL Shot Props for Tonight (2/22)
Ondrej Case Under 2.5 Shots on Goal (-130 @ FanDuel)
Kase is a role player who plays better when on a top-line, but he’s been relegated to 3rd line over the past nine games.
- The Leafs are on a back-to-back tonight on the road, and on the season, Kase is 12/19 (63%) to the under on this line in road games
- In the last nine games playing with Ilya Mikheyev and David Kampf, he’s been under this line six times (67%)
- As seen below, his offensive zone starts have plummeted while playing with Kampf/Mikheyev and smoothed 5v5 goals-for are going down while 5v5 goals-against are going upViz courtesy hockeyviz.com
- The potential risk is the Leafs lost to the Habs yesterday 5-2, and lineup shake-up could occur, but again he’s still under this line on the road enough for this to have value
- The Jackets are a terrible team and give up the most shots, but he’s gone under this line 4-1 against other teams who are top-six in shots against teams, such as the Sabres, Flyers, Habs, Senators, while going over against the Coyotes
This is a high number for a guy playing on the third line, and not playing particularly well. We’d play it down to -140.